According to the majority of respondents to our latest Steel Market Update survey, plate prices have bottomed out or are on the verge of
bottoming out. We are also seeing more and more people predicting higher prices in the coming months.
On a fundamental level, it's because we've seen a slight increase in lead times -- an average of 0.5 weeks recently. For example, average lead times for hot rolled coil (HRC) are just under 4 weeks; they are now 4.4 weeks.
Lead times can be an important leading indicator of pricing changes. The 4.4 week lead time doesn't mean the higher price is a slam dunk, but if we start to see HRC lead times averaging five to six weeks, the chances of a price hike increase significantly.